…because Microsoft is such a stabilizing force… right.
This article discusses a Road Warrior-like post-apocalyptic landscape that would come to pass if Microsoft were to seriously tumble from its dominant position (or fail entirely).
I beg to differ.
Contrary to the total chaos Randall Kennedy predicts, I think there will likely be a brief period of uncertainty, while people try to figure out how they’re going to deal with End Of Life issues for software they’ve been relying on for decades… but that’s really not all that different from the “chaos” that came to pass over Y2K… Remember the years we spent using BOTH sides of the toilet paper and eating spoilt cans of Spaghetti-Os over THAT?!
The truth of the matter is that there are, at a minimum, three or four viable operating system choices just waiting for Microsoft’s stranglehold on the market to falter a little. Apple has 2 of them, there’s 3 or four flavors of Linux (which I’ll count as one, because they’re all Linux), there’s Be, which has been dormant for a long time, but could be revived, there’s the BSD varieties (again, all counted together), and there’s Google’s Chrome (which is immature, but on a fast track).
The REAL problem will be migrating Desktop and Server applications to another platform, because of reliance on Microsoft’s “embraced and extended” “standards”. Well-designed software should be, for the most part, relatively simple to port. Poorly designed software will have to be rewritten. Remember when Windows2000 came out? Remember when Windows Vista came out? Drivers didn’t work, and systems crashed, and there were hardware compatibility issues… oh, it was a nightmare… some software wouldn’t run at all.
I’ve been running Linux personally for twelve years, now… I recently bough a couple Macs for my crazy NewsUndies show… but apart from Video Editing (and connecting my iPod Touch), I’ve had no problems with Linux, as long as I bought hardware that was compatible (that is, hardware for which, either the manufacturer has provided drivers, of the OpenSource community has managed to reverse-engineer drivers).
My Macs are OK, but I find Linux to be a better choice for the vast majority of my computing needs.
OpenOffice covers the vast bulk of “office suite” needs, and, as other needs arise, I’m sure people will either demand, or write their own applications to meet them.
I’m not saying that there wouldn’t be a period of disturbance… but … I don’t think wrist-mounted cross-bows and shoulder-pads will be the norm.
Remember when American Motors went away?
Remember when GM shut down Oldsmobile, Pontiac and Saturn?
I don’t think it’ll be much worse than that.